Are we facing a hung parliament in #LokSabhaElections2019?



The country will be soon in the roller coaster of emotions during the #LokSabhaElections2019 and ODI World Cup. Both the events will test the capability of most famous personalities in these fields: – Narendra Damodar Das Modi and Rahul Gandhi in politics and Mahendra Singh Dhoni in Cricket. The war between Congress and BJP had already started 2 years ago when the Grand Old Party started with the Rafale deal allegation which further helped the opposition coin a new political jibe “Chowkidar Chor Hai”. Though BJP calls it a “Naamdar V/s Kaamdar” fight, getting the magical number in polls seems to be a hoax. In this political scenario, when the whole opposition has united, it’s going to be a tough fight for BJP as well!

Who has better chances in #LokSabhaElections2019?

It’s an unassailable fact that Modi has become a popular global leader and his charismatic personality and his decisiveness have left an enchanting love over many while the Prince is still fighting for acceptance especially from the youth just because of his own mistakes. In this critical situation when our 45 soldiers martyred in the #Pulwamaattack, the opposition left no stone unturned to criticize the government but it was government’s will power to fight terrorism and bravery of Indian Air Force that #Pulwamarevenge was taken through #Surgicalstrike on Balakot. This action has led to nationwide applause for Modi leading to an exponential increase in popularity. Many surveys have shown that now it will be an easy task for NDA to form the government. With an aim of just defeating Modi, the Mahagathbandhan is heading forward for the polls! Post Pulwama incident, as per survey polls, there has been an increase in 30% popularity of BJP. As far as proposed Mahagathbandhan is concerned thinking class of India who has experienced similar governments in the past are skeptical about their forming government because “too many cooks spoil the broth”. Many youngsters still feel that the development agenda can be addressed under the Modi government because he has demonstrated better leadership qualities than Rahul Gandhi – #PhirEKBaarModiSarkaar

What is the Magic Number of #LokSabhaElections2019?

Consider a situation where not even NDA nor UPA (or Mahagathbandhan) is unable to achieve 50% of the total Lok Sabha seats which 272 out of 543. The President of India – Ram Nath Kovind before jumping to the extreme solution of re-election, will call upon all the political parties to form a government and touch the magic number on the floor of the House. Elections are a huge burden on taxpayers of the country, so the idea of a hung assembly and re-elections though remote but need to be discussed. At such horrible times, even a single vote counts a scenario somewhat happened during Atal Ji’s NDA-1 government. They failed to win the confidence when All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK) withdrew from the coalition. Thus, even the inconsequential parties play smartly during this need of the hour. According to the Sarkaria Commission, the chief of the largest post-poll alliance will be called by the Prsedient to form government. But if an unstable government is formed then the President’s rule is imposed and fresh elections need to be held after 6 months.

The Voice of Pre-Poll Surveys of #LokSabhaElections2019

After winning 282 seats in 2014, BJP continued its winning streak for the next 3 years and made government in total 18 states. Even after demonetization and GST, they won the heart of voters in UP. In 2018, the anti-incumbency and the NOTA effect led to their loss in 3 states. Thus, every media house is conducting their own surveys to get an idea about the winner of 2019! According to India TV-CNX and other major surveys, job creation is the biggest issue for the upcoming polls. The return of Wing Commander Abhinandan within two days was a big diplomatic win and this will surely give a boost in the number of seats to be won by BJP. While Congress is still facing the problem of strong leadership it had earlier. Thus 230-260 can be a realistic number that BJP might get in 2019 while Congress might get 70-90.

  • TAMIL NADU: – NDA = 5 (BJP – 0 and AIADMK – 5, UPA = 30, OTHERS = 5)
  • KERALA: – BJP =1-2| UPA = 6-8 and LEFT = 11-13
  • KARNATAKA: – BJP = 16-20 |UPA = 5-7| JDS = 4-5
  • ANDHRA PRADESH: – YSR Congress – 12-18 | TDP – 7-13| BJP/Congress=0
  • TELANGANA: – TRS-16| MIM-1| Congress/BJP/TDP-0
  • GOA: – BJP and Congress = 1
  • MAHARASHTRA: – BJP = 18-23 | CONG+NCP = 8-26} SHIV SENA = 2-20
  • GUJARAT: – BJP = 20-26 | CONGRESS = 0-6
  • MADHYA PRADESH: – BJP = 19-23 | CONGRESS = 5-9
  • CHATTISGARH: – BJP = 4-7} CONGRESS = 4-7
  • ODISHA: – BJP = 12-17 | BJD = 5-9
  • WEST BENGAL: – TMC = 25-25 | BJP = 7-17
  • BIHAR: – NDA = 30-35 | UPA = 5-10
  • JHARKHAND: -BJP = 7-10
  • UTTAR PRADESH: – BJP = 40-59} CONGRESS =1 | OTHERS = 20-39
  • DELHI: – BJP = 5-6
  • RAJASTHAN: – BJP = 18-22} CONGRESS = 2-4
  • HARYANA: – BJP =7 | OTHERS = 3
  • PUNJAB: – CONGRESS = 10 | NDA = 4
  • NORTH EAST: – BJP = 10

Therefore, in this political scenario, it is very crucial on our part (the citizens of India) to come out and vote. At this juncture when biased media has successfully spread hatred among people and separated this nation over politics, we must ensure that we vote for the truth. Giving a vote to a party is as important as accessing the performance of your local leaders! A leader who is educated and not a rapist. We have the right to choose our leaders. We must refrain from the politics of religion and vote on the basis of the development and progress of the nation.

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